Rule #1: Seeing the films nominated for the Oscars does not help you accurately predict who’ll win the Oscars
Rule #2: Paying attention to websites watching Oscar voters will help you accurately forecast the winners. In fact, I’d posit that someone who has watched none of the nominated films but has followed Oscar Watch for the previous two months will do miles better than the usual film fan that has been running like a mad bastard trying to get all the nominated movies in front of their face so as to become“educated“ when they cast their ballot.
Rule #3: When in doubt, go with the assumption that the most significant block of voters will behave less like curators of quality film and more like high school students electing a prom court.
I haven’t watched all the movies which have been nominated. I’ve seen less than half of these, in reality. This makes me educated on what has been nominated than large swaths of this Academy. And because I’m cleanly divorced from the idea that the supply of these treasured golden dildoes relies on merit, forecasting the Oscars is a totally mercenary exercise. Which it should be, if you are likely to have the most pleasure out of the glittery gladhandjob erupting this coming Sunday.
After the jump, your Oscar Ballot Cheat Sheet. Follow it carefully if you would like to clean up at whatever party you are attending (we suggest either the Hollywood Theatre’s shindig, or ShanRock’s Trivia and viewing celebration ), and examine my explanations as to why those are the wise picks, and therefore you need to trust me since I’m hardly wrong about whatever. Ever. Really.
Best Picture: 12 Years a Slave
Best Director: Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Best Actor: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Finest Actress: Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Best Supporting Actor: Jared Leto Dallas Buyers Club
Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Best Original Screenplay: Spike Jonze, Her
Best Adapted Screenplay: John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave
Best Animated Feature Film: Frozen
Best Foreign Language Film: The Hunt
Finest Cinematography: Emmanuel Luzbeki, Gravity
Best Editing: Alfonso Cuaron, Mark Sanger, Gravity
Finest Production Design: Adam Stockhausen, Alice Baker, 12 Years a Slave
Best Costume Design: Michael Wilkinson, American Hustle
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Adruitha Lee, Robin Mathews, Dallas Buyers Club
Best Original Score: Alexandre Desplat, Philomena
Best Original Song: Kristen Anderson Lopez, Robert Lopez, Let it Go from Frozen
Best Sound Mixing: Skip Lievsay, Niv Adiri, Christopher Benstead, Chris Munro, Gravity
Very best Sound Editing: Glenn Freemantle, Gravity
Best Visual Effects: Timothy Webber, Chris Lawrence, David Shirk, Neil Corbould, Gravity
Finest Documentary Feature: Joshua Oppenheimer, Signe Byrge S??rensen, The Act of Killing
Best Documentary Short: Malcolm Clarke, Carl Freed, The Lady in Number 6
Best Animated Short: Lauren MacMullan, Dorothy McKim, Get a Horse
Best Live Action Short: Xavier Legrand, Just Before Losing Everything
The Whys and Wherefores:
The Academy does not reward comedies if they can reward an extremely significant film instead. So comedies such as Wolf of Wall Street and American Hustle are right out. So are sci-fi movies, and movies with notions that are generally“weird.“ Those sorts of movies have been relegated to Screenplay nominations, typically. That’s their consolation prize. This is the reason 12 Years will take Best Picture. I don’t think they’re likely to divide Picture and Director, either. Rewarding the film is a message in and of itself (similar to Crash was as it won), giving Steve McQueen and John Ridley statues will underline that message: that the Academy is a considerate, compassionate group of individuals. They’re not, but they really like pretending that they are. These are individuals who appreciate the power of narrative, especially if this narrative is all about them and can make them feel good about themselves. The quality of the film is secondary to its ability to help send that message.
Read more here: http://sestricka.com/?p=88748