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After back-to-back Team Penske wins, NASCAR heads to ISM Raceway’s one-mile horizontal track in Phoenix for the fourth race of the year.

Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano are riding streaks of eight top-12 finishes dating back to last season, but both drivers are going to take a backseat to the recent dominating performances of Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch at Phoenix.

Harvick (9/4) and Busch (7/2) have the shortest chances to win Sunday’s TicketGuardian 500 and both won at the course last season. This weekend, if Harvick were to win, he would join an elite group, becoming only the sixth driver in series history to win 10 or even more Cup Series races in one track; linking Richard Petty, Darrell Waltrip, Jimmie Johnson, David Pearson and Dale Earnhardt.

MORE: Odds to win 2019 NASCAR Cup Series championship

In three of the previous four Phoenix races, Busch has headed 359 laps, including 117 in his win throughout last season’s playoffs — the first under the new arrangement of this track.

Phoenix’s track is similar to Richmond and New Hampshire and it is no surprise both Harvick and Busch have had similar success at these racks. Busch has won the previous two races in Richmond and 2017’s fall race at New Hampshire. Harvick won the most-recent race in New Hampshire and has finished in the top five in five of the past six races in Richmond.

But unlike in these previous races, all drivers will use a new automobile installment executed by NASCAR, one different from what we saw the previous two weeks at Atlanta and Las Vegas. This year, teams may utilize a spacer — and no ducts — for the first time. They’ll use a 750-horsepower engine in Phoenix rather than the engine at Vegas. NASCAR expects to see a car. The bundle that is new could close the gap Busch and Harvick have had on the area.

So far in 2 races with the slightly differing rules bundle of NASCAR, Ford contains five consecutive period wins and has led 65 percent of their laps. Ford motorist Aric Almirola, Harvick’s teammate, will be a sleeper motorist to observe this weekend. He was third at New Hampshire’s similar layout final season, fifth at Richmond and fourth last year’s fall race at Phoenix. Almirola is 20/1 to win on Sunday and he is liked by us in a matchup with Kyle Larson at -110.

MORE: The way to Succeed betting on NASCAR at 2019

Curious to win 2019 TicketGuardian 500 at Phoenix

Odds Supplied by Westgate LV SuperBook

Kevin HARVICK 9/4
Kyle BUSCH 7/2
Brad KESELOWSKI 7/1
Joey LOGANO 8/1
Martin TRUEX JR 10/1
Chase ELLIOTT 10/1
Denny HAMLIN 15/1
Kyle LARSON 20/1
Aric ALMIROLA 20/1
Clint BOWYER 25/1
Erik JONES 25/1
Kurt BUSCH 30/1
Ryan BLANEY 30/1
Jimmie JOHNSON 50/1
Austin DILLON 50/1
Alex BOWMAN 50/1
Ricky STENHOUSE JR 50/1
Daniel SUAREZ 60/1
Ryan NEWMAN 100/1
William BYRON 100/1
Daniel HEMRIC 100/1
Paul MENARD 100/1
Ryan PREECE 200/1
Chris BUESCHER 200/1
Matt DIBENEDETTO 200/1
Darrell WALLACE JR 500/1
Ty DILLON 1000/1
Michael McDOWELL 2000/1
David RAGAN 2000/1
FIELD (all others) 500/1

Read more here: http://sestricka.com/?p=88762

After back-to-back Team Penske wins, NASCAR heads to ISM Raceway’s one-mile horizontal track in Phoenix for the fourth race of the year.

Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano are riding streaks of eight top-12 finishes dating back to last year, but both motorists are going to take a backseat to the recent dominating performances of Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch at Phoenix.

Harvick (9/4) and Busch (7/2) have the shortest odds to win Sunday’s TicketGuardian 500 and both won at the track last season. This weekend, even when Harvick were to win, he’d join an elite group, becoming only the sixth driver in series history to win 10 or more Cup Series races at a single track; joining Richard Petty, Darrell Waltrip, Jimmie Johnson, David Pearson and Dale Earnhardt.

MORE: Chances

In three of those previous four Phoenix races, Busch has headed 359 laps, including 117 in his win during last year’s playoffs — the first under the new arrangement of the track.

Phoenix’s track is similar to Richmond and New Hampshire and it’s no surprise both Harvick and Busch have had similar success at those racks. Busch has won the fall race in New Hampshire of 2017 and the last two races at Richmond. Harvick won the most-recent race in New Hampshire and has finished in the top five in five of the previous six races at Richmond.

But unlike in those preceding races, all motorists will be using a new car installment executed by NASCAR, one different from that which we saw the previous two weeks in Atlanta and Las Vegas. This year teams may use a different-sized tapered spacer — and no ducts that are aero — for the very first time. They will use a engine in Phoenix rather than the engine in Vegas. NASCAR hopes to see a well-handling car. The package that is new could close the gap Busch and Harvick have had on the field.

So much in 2 races with the slightly differing rules bundle of NASCAR, Ford has led 65 percent of the laps and contains five stage wins. Ford motorist Aric Almirola, Harvick’s teammate, will be a sleeper motorist. He was third in New Hampshire’s similar design final season, fifth at Richmond and fourth in last year’s fall race in Phoenix. Almirola is 20/1 to win on Sunday and he is liked by us in a matchup with Kyle Larson at -110.

MORE: How to win at betting on NASCAR in 2019

Curious to win 2019 TicketGuardian 500 at Phoenix

Odds provided by Westgate LV SuperBook

Kevin HARVICK 9/4
Kyle BUSCH 7/2
Brad KESELOWSKI 7/1
Joey LOGANO 8/1
Martin TRUEX JR 10/1
Chase ELLIOTT 10/1
Denny HAMLIN 15/1
Kyle LARSON 20/1
Aric ALMIROLA 20/1
Clint BOWYER 25/1
Erik JONES 25/1
Kurt BUSCH 30/1
Ryan BLANEY 30/1
Jimmie JOHNSON 50/1
Austin DILLON 50/1
Alex BOWMAN 50/1
Ricky STENHOUSE JR 50/1
Daniel SUAREZ 60/1
Ryan NEWMAN 100/1
William BYRON 100/1
Daniel HEMRIC 100/1
Paul MENARD 100/1
Ryan PREECE 200/1
Chris BUESCHER 200/1
Matt DIBENEDETTO 200/1
Darrell WALLACE JR 500/1
Ty DILLON 1000/1
Michael McDOWELL 2000/1
David RAGAN 2000/1
FIELD (all others) 500/1

Read more here: http://sestricka.com/?p=88762

After back-to-back Team Penske wins, NASCAR heads to ISM Raceway’s one-mile horizontal trail in Phoenix for the fourth race of the year.

Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano are riding streaks of eight top-12 finishes dating back to last season, but both drivers will take a backseat to the recent dominating performances of Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch at Phoenix.

Harvick (9/4) and Busch (7/2) have the shortest odds to win Sunday’s TicketGuardian 500 and won at the course last season. This weekend, if Harvick were to win, he’d join an elite team, becoming only the sixth driver in series history to win 10 or even more Cup Series races at a single track; joining Richard Petty, Darrell Waltrip, Jimmie Johnson, David Pearson and Dale Earnhardt.

MORE: Chances

In three of the last four Phoenix races, Busch has led 359 laps, including 117 in his win during last year’s playoffs — the first under the new arrangement of the track.

Phoenix’s track is comparable to Richmond and New Hampshire and it is no surprise both Harvick and Busch have had similar success at those racks. Busch has won the last two races in Richmond and 2017’s fall race at New Hampshire. Harvick won the most-recent race in New Hampshire and has finished in the top five in five of the past six races at Richmond.

But unlike in these previous races, all drivers will use a new car setup implemented by NASCAR, one different from what we saw the last fourteen days at Atlanta and Las Vegas. This season teams may use a different-sized tapered spacer — and no ducts — for the very first time. They’ll use a 750-horsepower engine at Phoenix instead of their engine at Vegas. NASCAR hopes to see a car. The bundle that is new could close the gap Busch and Harvick have had on the area.

So far in two races with the slightly differing rules package of NASCAR, Ford has led 65 percent of the laps and contains five consecutive period wins. Harvick’s teammate, ford motorist Aric Almirola, will be a sleeper driver to watch this weekend. He was third in New Hampshire’s similar design final season, fifth at Richmond and fourth last season’s fall race in Phoenix. Almirola is 20/1 to win on Sunday and we like him .

MORE: How to win at betting on NASCAR in 2019

Curious to win 2019 TicketGuardian 500 in Phoenix

Odds Supplied by Westgate LV SuperBook

Kevin HARVICK 9/4
Kyle BUSCH 7/2
Brad KESELOWSKI 7/1
Joey LOGANO 8/1
Martin TRUEX JR 10/1
Chase ELLIOTT 10/1
Denny HAMLIN 15/1
Kyle LARSON 20/1
Aric ALMIROLA 20/1
Clint BOWYER 25/1
Erik JONES 25/1
Kurt BUSCH 30/1
Ryan BLANEY 30/1
Jimmie JOHNSON 50/1
Austin DILLON 50/1
Alex BOWMAN 50/1
Ricky STENHOUSE JR 50/1
Daniel SUAREZ 60/1
Ryan NEWMAN 100/1
William BYRON 100/1
Daniel HEMRIC 100/1
Paul MENARD 100/1
Ryan PREECE 200/1
Chris BUESCHER 200/1
Matt DIBENEDETTO 200/1
Darrell WALLACE JR 500/1
Ty DILLON 1000/1
Michael McDOWELL 2000/1
David RAGAN 2000/1
FIELD (all others) 500/1

Read more here: http://sestricka.com/?p=88762

After back-to-back Team Penske wins, NASCAR heads to ISM Raceway’s one-mile flat trail in Phoenix for the fourth race of the year.

Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano are riding streaks of eight top-12 finishes dating back to last season, but both drivers will take a backseat to the recent dominating performances of Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch in Phoenix.

Harvick (9/4) and Busch (7/2) have the shortest odds to win Sunday’s TicketGuardian 500 and both won at the course last season. This weekend, when Harvick were to win, he would join an elite group, becoming just the sixth driver in series history to win 10 or even more Cup Series races in one track; joining Richard Petty, Darrell Waltrip, Jimmie Johnson, David Pearson and Dale Earnhardt.

MORE: Chances to win 2019 NASCAR Cup Series championship

In three of those last four Phoenix races, Busch has led 359 laps, including 117 in his win during last season’s playoffs — the first under the new arrangement of this track.

Phoenix’s track is comparable to Richmond and New Hampshire and it is no surprise both Harvick and Busch have experienced similar success at these racks. Busch has won the last two races in Richmond and the fall race in New Hampshire of 2017. Harvick won the most-recent race at New Hampshire and has finished in the top five in five of the previous six races at Richmond.

But unlike in these preceding races, all motorists will use a new automobile setup implemented by NASCAR, another from that which we saw the previous two weeks at Atlanta and Las Vegas. This year teams may use a spacer — and no ducts that are aero — for the first time. They’ll use a 750-horsepower engine in Phoenix rather than their 550-horsepower engine at Vegas. NASCAR hopes to see a well-handling car. The bundle that is new could close the gap Busch and Harvick have experienced on the field.

So much in 2 races with the marginally differing rules package of NASCAR, Ford has led 65 percent of the laps and has five stage wins. Ford motorist Aric Almirola, Harvick’s teammate, will be a sleeper driver to watch this weekend. He was third at New Hampshire’s similar layout final season, fifth at Richmond and fourth last season’s fall race at Phoenix. Almirola is 20/1 to win on Sunday and we enjoy him in a matchup with Kyle Larson at -110.

MORE: The way to win at betting on NASCAR in 2019

Curious to win 2019 TicketGuardian 500 in Phoenix

Odds provided by Westgate LV SuperBook

Kevin HARVICK 9/4
Kyle BUSCH 7/2
Brad KESELOWSKI 7/1
Joey LOGANO 8/1
Martin TRUEX JR 10/1
Chase ELLIOTT 10/1
Denny HAMLIN 15/1
Kyle LARSON 20/1
Aric ALMIROLA 20/1
Clint BOWYER 25/1
Erik JONES 25/1
Kurt BUSCH 30/1
Ryan BLANEY 30/1
Jimmie JOHNSON 50/1
Austin DILLON 50/1
Alex BOWMAN 50/1
Ricky STENHOUSE JR 50/1
Daniel SUAREZ 60/1
Ryan NEWMAN 100/1
William BYRON 100/1
Daniel HEMRIC 100/1
Paul MENARD 100/1
Ryan PREECE 200/1
Chris BUESCHER 200/1
Matt DIBENEDETTO 200/1
Darrell WALLACE JR 500/1
Ty DILLON 1000/1
Michael McDOWELL 2000/1
David RAGAN 2000/1
FIELD (others) 500/1

Read more here: http://sestricka.com/?p=88762

Whenever the Philadelphia Phillies compensated Bryce Harper $330 Million dollars in the offseason, they did it because they wanted to bring in a player that may win them a match by himself. Bryce got his opportunity last night as he created the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth inning, along with his Phillies team trailing by 2 runs. And he did not disappoint as he blasted a moonshot, top decker, grand slam home run, to walk off the game to the Phillies.
The explosion completed an improbable comeback that saw the Phillies hit the bottom of the ninth down 5-1. They won the game 7-5. The late-game heroics also pushed the game on the total of nine and a half an hour, and we all picked up our second right winning wager. It had been the definition of a back-door cover!
The match itself went a lot like I thought it would as Drew Smyly was dreadful for Philly. I questioned why they traded for a man like Smyly that has been having such a lousy year, plus he has banged up again last night, giving up five runs on seven hits in just five innings of work. He did what he could to push the game to the above, but Cubs starter Yu Darvish was light outside in seven innings, allowing no runs.
It seemed as if we were going to take a hard-luck reduction, before Harper and the rest of the Phillies battered the Cubs bullpen for seven runs in the final two innings. We have a little bit lucky late in the match, but that is the reason why a bet on the over is really exciting, you’re never from the match until the final pitch is chucked! For today’s bet, we will head to the Bronx where the Yankees host the Cleveland Indians.
The Cleveland Indians are in New York City Friday for game two of a four-game series with the Yankees. The Indians burst for a whopping nineteen runs last night in game one to take the series lead. Jose Ramirez and Carlos Santana both had numerous home runs, along with seven distinct guys drove runs in, headed by Ramirez who had six RBI on the night.
The triumph was a big one for Cleveland as they’re in a tight race with the Minnesota Twins for the American League Central Division title. With the win last night, the Indians are actually only a half of a match back of Minnesota for first place. The Indians have been 10-5 in the month of August.
For New Yorkthey are at minimal risk of giving up first place in their division, the American League East, since they maintain a nine plus a half-game lead on the Tampa Bay Rays, also have the best record in the major leagues, tied together with the Los Angles Dodgers. The loss was a rare one for New York as they had won half of the past fifteen matches this month prior to getting blown out last night.
Starting for the Yankees is Masahiro Tanaka (8-6 4.64 ERA), and for the Indians, it’s Aaron Civale (1-1 1.00 ERA). The game complete over-under is set in ten and a half conducts. The Yankees are -144 favorites. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05 PM PST from Yankee Stadium in New York .
The New York Yankees are finally getting their lineup wholesome, and you can see the difference in the plate. The Yankees are leading the majors in runs scored this past month, and it’s not even that close. Even the Houston Astros and their juggernaut lineup have scored six fewer conducts the Bronx Bombers this season, along with the third-place team, the Minnesota Twins, are a distant twenty-eight runs behind New York. The Yankees have blasted forty-two home runs in sixteen matches this month, as well as a group, they are hitting nearly .300 because the trade deadline.
When you look at the game complete for New York, they have gone nearly every match in the last couple of weeks. During the month of August, the Yankees and their opponents have combined for double runs in thirteen of their games. A significant part of this is their strong lineup, however, New York is also experimenting with a great deal of young guys in the bullpen, and we watched last night that occasionally those experiments can fail.
Masahiro Tanka has really struggled since the All-Star break. In his six starts as the fracture, his ERA is over seven runs. In Julyhe had an ERA of almost nine runs since he gave up twenty-five runs in five starts, including seven home runs. However, despite the fact he has not been very good this year, the Yankees seem to figure out ways to win if he is still on the mound. New York has won ten of his last eleven starts.
Tanaka has enabled four runs or more in a beginning ten times this year. That includes a beginning a couple months back where the Boston Red Sox nailed him for twelve runs in three innings. To say the man was inconsistent would be a major understatement. He will still occasionally show up though. We noticed this last week after he tossed eight shutout innings against the Toronto Blue Jays. It’ll be interesting to find out exactly what Tanaka brings to the park tonight because the Cleveland Indians are definitely not the Toronto Blue Jays.
Aaron Civale made his major league debut in a place start on June 22nd for Cleveland and looked good in six innings of work. The Indians have called Civale up here in August to assist a playoff push, and the kid has been great. In his two August starts since rejoining the group, Civale has pitched six innings in both games and has allowed just one run in every appearance.
I see fireworks coming tonight! The Yankees can not stop scoring runs, and with Tanaka about the mound, having a weary bullpen that got blasted for fourteen runs yesterday behind him, I see the Yankees giving up a bunch of runs as well. Civale has been impressive in his brief stint in the big leagues, but he’s about to have a rude awakening . Shutting down the Texas Rangers along with the Detroit Tigers does not mean you’re going to have the ability to slow down these red-hot Yankees. Welcome to the series kid!
This is only one of the games that could turn mad like the night’s affair that watched eleven runs go up on the plank. After getting embarrassed on their home area last night, I visit New York showing no winner for this rookie tonight. And we all know that Tanaka is going to give up at least a couple of runs also. Therefore, I am going to take the over in this one tonight.
And surprisingly, the people seems to be about the beneath, as we can get dog money on the right now at +102. You’ve got two choices here. Just take the above ten and a half at +102, or expect the under action to keep coming, and await the line to adapt to ten runs in -110. Personally, I will take the excess juice since I see this one sailing way over, and that I want the higher payout over the half of a run. But I could see a situation for waiting for the line to maneuver also. As it stands today, I’ll take the above ten and a half runs tonight in the Bronx at +102!

Read more here: http://www.scoredata.com/blog/state-is-a-13-5-point-favorite-vs-visiting-michigan-state/

Driver odds to win Sunday’s Dragon Power NASCAR Cup Series race at Atlanta Motor Speedway have jumped considerably all weekend for many drivers — most notably, three of Stewart-Haas Racing’s four motorists have leapt towards the top of the board.

This year’s first race on an intermediate course comes with a brand-new rules package — learn more about this — and with it, plenty of learnings. Aric Almirola and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. begins 1-2 Sunday, and odd practice speeds led to odds movement.

MORE: Upgraded odds for the Atlanta race | Fantasy upgrade, props advice for Atlanta

One of the most noteworthy:

??? Aric Almirola, who won his first Busch Pole Award opened at 25-1 odds. He enters Sunday in 10-1, a great value for people who plunked down a bet on him until the weekend began. Nine drivers are listed at 10-1 or greater.

??? Daniel Suarez showed plenty of speed in qualifying and practice in the No. 41 Ford, along with his line reveals that. Suarez now sits in 25-1 and is among the greatest movers.

??? Clint Bowyer, the third SHR driver on the list, led both practice sessions and appeared to be the favorite to win the Busch Pole. He qualified third. He has gone out of 16-1 odds to 8-1, the next highest in the field behind Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch.

??? Ricky Stenhouse Jr., meanwhile, jumped from 66-1 chances to 20-1 following his No. 17 Roush Fenway Ford Mustang delivered a P2 qualifying position.

??? Though the strange didn’t go significantly, it’s well worth noting that Kevin Harvick — who has mastered at Atlanta the last five years — watched his odds as race favorite go from 4.5-1 to 6-1 after his slow Friday.

Rule #1: Seeing the films nominated for the Oscars does not help you accurately predict who’ll win the Oscars

Rule #2: Paying attention to websites watching Oscar voters will help you accurately forecast the winners. In fact, I’d posit that someone who has watched none of the nominated films but has followed Oscar Watch for the previous two months will do miles better than the usual film fan that has been running like a mad bastard trying to get all the nominated movies in front of their face so as to become“educated“ when they cast their ballot.
Rule #3: When in doubt, go with the assumption that the most significant block of voters will behave less like curators of quality film and more like high school students electing a prom court.
I haven’t watched all the movies which have been nominated. I’ve seen less than half of these, in reality. This makes me educated on what has been nominated than large swaths of this Academy. And because I’m cleanly divorced from the idea that the supply of these treasured golden dildoes relies on merit, forecasting the Oscars is a totally mercenary exercise. Which it should be, if you are likely to have the most pleasure out of the glittery gladhandjob erupting this coming Sunday.
After the jump, your Oscar Ballot Cheat Sheet. Follow it carefully if you would like to clean up at whatever party you are attending (we suggest either the Hollywood Theatre’s shindig, or ShanRock’s Trivia and viewing celebration ), and examine my explanations as to why those are the wise picks, and therefore you need to trust me since I’m hardly wrong about whatever. Ever. Really.
Best Picture: 12 Years a Slave
Best Director: Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Best Actor: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Finest Actress: Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Best Supporting Actor: Jared Leto Dallas Buyers Club
Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Best Original Screenplay: Spike Jonze, Her
Best Adapted Screenplay: John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave
Best Animated Feature Film: Frozen
Best Foreign Language Film: The Hunt
Finest Cinematography: Emmanuel Luzbeki, Gravity
Best Editing: Alfonso Cuaron, Mark Sanger, Gravity
Finest Production Design: Adam Stockhausen, Alice Baker, 12 Years a Slave
Best Costume Design: Michael Wilkinson, American Hustle
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Adruitha Lee, Robin Mathews, Dallas Buyers Club
Best Original Score: Alexandre Desplat, Philomena
Best Original Song: Kristen Anderson Lopez, Robert Lopez, Let it Go from Frozen
Best Sound Mixing: Skip Lievsay, Niv Adiri, Christopher Benstead, Chris Munro, Gravity
Very best Sound Editing: Glenn Freemantle, Gravity
Best Visual Effects: Timothy Webber, Chris Lawrence, David Shirk, Neil Corbould, Gravity
Finest Documentary Feature: Joshua Oppenheimer, Signe Byrge S??rensen, The Act of Killing
Best Documentary Short: Malcolm Clarke, Carl Freed, The Lady in Number 6
Best Animated Short: Lauren MacMullan, Dorothy McKim, Get a Horse
Best Live Action Short: Xavier Legrand, Just Before Losing Everything
The Whys and Wherefores:
The Academy does not reward comedies if they can reward an extremely significant film instead. So comedies such as Wolf of Wall Street and American Hustle are right out. So are sci-fi movies, and movies with notions that are generally“weird.“ Those sorts of movies have been relegated to Screenplay nominations, typically. That’s their consolation prize. This is the reason 12 Years will take Best Picture. I don’t think they’re likely to divide Picture and Director, either. Rewarding the film is a message in and of itself (similar to Crash was as it won), giving Steve McQueen and John Ridley statues will underline that message: that the Academy is a considerate, compassionate group of individuals. They’re not, but they really like pretending that they are. These are individuals who appreciate the power of narrative, especially if this narrative is all about them and can make them feel good about themselves. The quality of the film is secondary to its ability to help send that message.

Read more here: http://sestricka.com/?p=88748

Rule #1: Watching the Movies nominated for the Oscars does N’t help you accurately predict who’ll win the Oscars

Rule #2: Paying attention to sites watching Oscar voters will help you correctly predict the winners. In fact, I’d posit that somebody who has watched none of those nominated films but has followed Oscar Watch for the previous two months will perform miles better than the usual film fan who has been running around like a crazy bastard trying to get all the nominated films before the face so as to be“educated“ whenever they cast their ballot.
Rule #3: When in doubt, go with the assumption that the largest block of voters will behave less like curators of superior movie and more like high school pupils opting a prom court.
I haven’t watched all the movies that were nominated. I’ve seen less than half of them, in reality. This makes me more educated on what has been nominated than large swaths of the Academy. And because I’m cleanly divorced from the idea that the distribution of these treasured golden dildoes relies on merit, forecasting the Oscars is an entirely mercenary exercise. That it should be, if you’re going to get the most enjoyment out of the glittery gladhandjob erupting this coming Sunday.
After the jump, your Oscar Ballot Cheat Sheet. Follow it carefully if you would like to clean up at whatever party you are attending (we suggest either the Hollywood Theatre’s shindig, or ShanRock’s Trivia and watching celebration ), and examine my explanations as to why those are the smart selections, and so you need to trust me because I am barely wrong about whatever. Ever. Really.
Best Picture: 12 Years a Slave
Best Manager: Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Finest Actor: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Best Actress: Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Best Supporting Actor: Jared Leto Dallas Buyers Club
Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Best Original Screenplay: Spike Jonze, Her
Best Adapted Screenplay: John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave
Best Animated Feature Film: Frozen
Best Foreign Language Film: The Hunt
Finest Cinematography: Emmanuel Luzbeki, Gravity
Finest Editing: Alfonso Cuaron, Mark Sanger, Gravity
Finest Production Design: Adam Stockhausen, Alice Baker, 12 Years a Slave
Finest Costume Design: Michael Wilkinson, American Hustle
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Adruitha Lee, Robin Mathews, Dallas Buyers Club
Best Original Score: Alexandre Desplat, Philomena
Best Original Song: Kristen Anderson Lopez, Robert Lopez, Let it Proceed Frozen
Best Sound Mixing: Skip Lievsay, Niv Adiri, Christopher Benstead, Chris Munro, Gravity
Very best Sound Editing: Glenn Freemantle, Gravity
Best Visual Effects: Timothy Webber, Chris Lawrence, David Shirk, Neil Corbould, Gravity
Finest Documentary Feature: Joshua Oppenheimer, Signe Byrge S??rensen, The Act of Killing
Finest Documentary Short: Malcolm Clarke, Carl Freed, The Girl at Number 6
Best Animated Short: Lauren MacMullan, Dorothy McKim, Get a Horse
Best Live Action Short: Xavier Legrand, Only Before Losing Everything
The Whys and Wherefores:
The Academy doesn’t reward comedies when they can reward a very significant movie instead. So comedies such as Wolf of Wall Street and American Hustle are right out. So are sci-fi movies, and movies with notions that are generally“weird.“ Those sorts of films are relegated to Screenplay nominations, typically. That is their consolation prize. That is why 12 Years will take Best Picture. I don’t think they’re going to split Picture and Director, either. Rewarding the movie is a message in and of itself (much like Crash was as it won), giving Steve McQueen and John Ridley figurines will populate that message: the Academy is a considerate, compassionate group of individuals. They’re not, but they really like pretending they are. These are individuals who love the power of story, particularly if this storyline is about them and will make them feel good about themselves. The quality of the movie is secondary to its ability to help send that message.

Read more here: http://sestricka.com/?p=88748

Rule #1: Watching the Movies nominated for the Oscars absolutely does N’t help you accurately predict who’ll win the Oscars

Rule #2: Paying attention to websites watching Oscar voters will help you correctly predict the winners. In fact, I’d posit that somebody who has watched none of the nominated movies but has followed Oscar Watch for the previous two months will do miles better than the usual movie fan that has been running around like a crazy bastard trying to get all the nominated films before the face in order to be“educated“ whenever they cast their ballot.
Rule #3: When in doubt, go with the premise that the largest block of voters will behave less like curators of quality movie and more like high school students electing a prom court.
I have not watched all the movies that have been nominated. I’ve seen less than half of these, in fact. This makes me educated on what has been nominated than big swaths of the Academy. And because I am cleanly divorced from the idea that the distribution of these treasured golden dildoes is based on merit, forecasting the Oscars is a totally mercenary exercise. That it should be, if you’re likely to get the most pleasure from the glittery gladhandjob erupting this coming Sunday.
After the jump, your Oscar Ballot Cheat Sheet. Follow it carefully if you want to clean up at whatever party you are attending (we propose either the Hollywood Theatre’s shindig, or ShanRock’s Trivia and viewing celebration ), and read my explanations as to why those are the smart selections, and therefore you need to trust me since I’m barely wrong about whatever. Ever. Really.
Best Picture: 12 Years a Slave
Best Director: Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Best Actor: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Best Actress: Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Best Supporting Actor: Jared Leto Dallas Buyers Club
Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Best First Screenplay: Spike Jonze, Her
Best Adapted Screenplay: John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave
Best Animated Feature Film: Frozen
Best Foreign Language Film: The Hunt
Finest Cinematography: Emmanuel Luzbeki, Gravity
Finest Editing: Alfonso Cuaron, Mark Sanger, Gravity
Best Production Design: Adam Stockhausen, Alice Baker, 12 Years a Slave
Finest Costume Design: Michael Wilkinson, American Hustle
Finest Makeup and Hairstyling: Adruitha Lee, Robin Mathews, Dallas Buyers Club
Best Original Score: Alexandre Desplat, Philomena
Best Original Song: Kristen Anderson Lopez, Robert Lopez, Let it Proceed Frozen
Very best Sound Mixing: Skip Lievsay, Niv Adiri, Christopher Benstead, Chris Munro, Gravity
Best Sound Editing: Glenn Freemantle, Gravity
Best Visual Effects: Timothy Webber, Chris Lawrence, David Shirk, Neil Corbould, Gravity
Best Documentary Feature: Joshua Oppenheimer, Signe Byrge S??rensen, The Act of Killing
Finest Documentary Short: Malcolm Clarke, Carl Freed, The Girl at Number 6
Best Animated Short: Lauren MacMullan, Dorothy McKim, Get a Horse
Best Live Action Short: Xavier Legrand, Just Before Losing Everything
The Whys and Wherefores:
The Academy does not reward comedies when they can reward a very serious movie instead. So comedies such as Wolf of Wall Street and American Hustle are right out. So are sci-fi movies, and films with notions that are generally“weird.“ Those kinds of films are relegated to Screenplay nominations, normally. That’s their consolation prize. This is the reason 12 Years will take Best Picture. I don’t think they’re going to divide Picture and Director, either. Rewarding the movie is a concept in and of itself (much like Crash was when it won), providing Steve McQueen and John Ridley statues will underline that message: that the Academy is a considerate, compassionate group of individuals. They’re not, but they love pretending that they are. These are people who appreciate the power of story, particularly if this storyline is about them and can make them feel good about themselves. The standard of the film is secondary to its ability to help deliver that message.

Read more here: http://sestricka.com/?p=88748

Rule #1: Watching the Movies nominated for the Oscars absolutely does N’t help you accurately predict who will win the Oscars

Rule #2: Paying attention to sites watching Oscar voters can help you correctly predict the winners. In fact, I’d posit that somebody who has watched none of those nominated films but has followed Oscar Watch for the previous two months will do miles better than a film fan who has been running around like a crazy bastard trying to get all the nominated films in front of the face so as to become“educated“ whenever they cast their ballot.
Rule #3: When in doubt, go with the premise that the most significant block of voters will act less like curators of quality film and more like high school students electing a prom court.
I have not watched all the films that were nominated. I have seen less than half of these, in reality. This makes me educated on what has been nominated than large swaths of this Academy. And because I’m cleanly divorced from the idea that the distribution of those treasured golden dildoes relies on merit, predicting the Oscars is an entirely mercenary exercise. That it should be, if you’re going to have the maximum enjoyment from this glittery gladhandjob erupting this coming Sunday.
After the jump, your Oscar Ballot Cheat Sheet. Follow it carefully in the event that you want to clean up at whatever party you are attending (we suggest either the Hollywood Theatre’s shindig, or ShanRock’s Trivia and watching party), and examine my explanations as to why those are the wise picks, and so you need to trust me because I am hardly wrong about whatever. Ever. Really.
Best Picture: 12 Years a Slave
Finest Director: Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Finest Actor: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Best Actress: Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Best Supporting Actor: Jared Leto Dallas Buyers Club
Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Best Original Screenplay: Spike Jonze, Her
Best Adapted Screenplay: John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave
Best Animated Feature Film: Frozen
Best Foreign Language Film: The Hunt
Finest Cinematography: Emmanuel Luzbeki, Gravity
Best Editing: Alfonso Cuaron, Mark Sanger, Gravity
Best Production Design: Adam Stockhausen, Alice Baker, 12 Years a Slave
Best Costume Design: Michael Wilkinson, American Hustle
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Adruitha Lee, Robin Mathews, Dallas Buyers Club
Best Original Score: Alexandre Desplat, Philomena
Best Original Song: Kristen Anderson Lopez, Robert Lopez, Let it Proceed Frozen
Best Sound Mixing: Skip Lievsay, Niv Adiri, Christopher Benstead, Chris Munro, Gravity
Best Sound Editing: Glenn Freemantle, Gravity
Best Visual Effects: Timothy Webber, Chris Lawrence, David Shirk, Neil Corbould, Gravity
Best Documentary Feature: Joshua Oppenheimer, Signe Byrge S??rensen, The Act of Killing
Finest Documentary Short: Malcolm Clarke, Carl Freed, The Girl at Number 6
Best Animated Short: Lauren MacMullan, Dorothy McKim, Get a Horse
Best Live Action Short: Xavier Legrand, Just Before Losing Everything
The Whys and Wherefores:
The Academy doesn’t reward comedies if they could reward a very significant film instead. So comedies like Wolf of Wall Street and American Hustle are right out. So are sci-fi movies, and films with notions that are generally“weird.“ Those kinds of films have been relegated into Screenplay nominations, typically. That’s their consolation prize. That is the reason 12 Years will take Best Picture. I really don’t think they are going to split Picture and Director, either. Rewarding the film is a message in and of itself (similar to Crash was when it won), providing Steve McQueen and John Ridley figurines will populate that message: that the Academy is a considerate, compassionate group of people. They’re not, but they really like pretending they are. These are people who love the power of narrative, especially if this storyline is all about them and can make them feel good about themselves. The quality of the film is secondary to its capacity to help send that message.

Read more here: http://sestricka.com/?p=88748

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